Binance.US plans CFTC license bid to launch its own prediction markets platform

Binance.US expects to file its application with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as early as August. If approved, the exchange would be able to offer contracts on the outcomes of sporting and other real-world events to US users under CFTC oversight.

Designated Contract Market status would let Binance.US officially list derivatives, including event contracts, for retail customers in the US — the same regulatory framework Kalshi and Gemini already operate under. Gemini secured its own CFTC license for prediction markets earlier this year, while Coinbase entered the space through a partnership with Kalshi rather than seeking a license of its own. Binance.US would be the latest major exchange chasing a segment that already includes Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini, and Coinbase.

A CFTC-regulated prediction market is one of the few ways a platform can legally offer event-based, betting-like contracts to US retail users nationwide, sidestepping the patchwork of state-by-state licensing that governs traditional sports betting. That structural advantage is a big part of why exchanges with no gambling background — Binance, Coinbase, Gemini — keep entering this specific corner of the market rather than sports betting itself.

Moving into prediction markets is part of a broader push by Binance.US to recover ground in the US after years of regulatory pressure. The SEC sued the company in 2023, and the fallout cost Binance.US its banking partners, restricted its ability to handle US dollars, and sharply reduced trading volumes.

A CFTC license wouldn’t undo that history, but it would be a concrete signal that a US federal regulator is willing to approve a new Binance.US product line — which matters more for rebuilding banking relationships than the prediction-market revenue itself is likely to in the short term.