Betting volume on the 2026 World Cup winner on Polymarket hits $4 billion

According to Polymarket’s current odds, France is considered the top contender for the title, with the market pricing its chances of winning at 33% and trading volume on this outcome reaching $97.2 million.

It is followed by Spain (18%, with trading volume of $89.4 million), Argentina (17%, with volume of $102.8 million), England (15%, with volume of $84.3 million), and Norway (5%, with volume of $109 million).

A $4 billion market on a single tournament outcome puts Polymarket’s sports book in territory that used to belong exclusively to regulated exchanges and licensed sportsbooks, and it did so without any of the traditional licensing infrastructure those markets are built on.

Odds on the tournament winner shifted noticeably after the start of the competition. Spain lost its status as the top favorite following its first-round match against Cape Verde, with the price of a contract on its win dropping to 10 cents.

Against this backdrop, France’s position strengthened, with its contract price rising to 35.1 cents. A ten-cent contract on a pre-tournament favorite is a steep drop, and it shows how sensitive this kind of volume-heavy market is to early results compared to traditional fixed-odds books that adjust more gradually.

For affiliates working prediction markets or crypto-adjacent betting products, Polymarket’s scale on this event is a signal worth tracking — not necessarily for direct promotion given the regulatory grey zone most prediction markets still occupy in major GEOs, but as an indicator of where liquidity and attention are actually flowing during the tournament.